PolySouq prediction markets: how to trade Bitcoin, gold, forex and football as probabilities
Verdict
- PolySouq is a prediction market: every outcome has a probability price from 0 to 100, and you buy YES or NO at that price with money you already hold. No leverage.
- Markets: Bitcoin and Ethereum Up/Down windows every 5 minutes, windows on gold, oil, silver, EUR/USD and USD/JPY, six football leagues, and multi-answer world events.
- Payout is parimutuel: correct answers split the money staked on wrong answers, minus a 10% commission taken only from the losing side. No spread, no deposit or monthly fee. No losing side, full refund.
- Buy-only, held to settlement; the most you can lose is your stake. Funding is USDC on the Polygon network only, $5 minimum deposit and withdrawal.
A prediction market quotes a probability for an event rather than a price for an asset: whether Bitcoin closes the next 5-minute window higher, whether EUR/USD closes a window up, or who wins a Champions League fixture. This guide covers the format, the catalogue, the payout arithmetic, the difference from a leveraged account, and how to open and fund an account. PolySouq is operated by the group that publishes this site; links are tracked, none is an affiliate link.
What a prediction market is
A prediction market lists a question with a fixed set of answers and a close date, and lets you buy an answer at its current price. The price is a probability from 0 to 100: a YES price of 62 means the market currently implies about a 62% chance that the answer is right, and it moves as money arrives on each side. You are not buying the asset and not borrowing anything; you put a fixed amount behind an answer, and the event decides. Every position is buy-only, held until the event resolves. Pew Research Center reported in May 2026 that combined monthly volume on Kalshi and Polymarket rose from under $5 billion in September 2025 to about $24 billion in April 2026.
- Binary markets have two answers, YES and NO: price windows and football results.
- Multi-answer events have three or more answers, such as the candidates in an election.
- Each market publishes its resolution rule and close date; nothing is accepted after the close.
A price on PolySouq is a probability that other people put there. Nobody sets it for you, nobody borrows on your behalf, and every resolved market shows why it resolved the way it did.
- PolySouq — the live events by category, with their current prices.
What you can trade on PolySouq
Up/Down windows ask one question about a price at the end of a fixed period and resolve automatically from public price data. Football markets price the winner of each fixture in six leagues. World events cover politics, economics and technology, usually with three or more answers. The links open each market's English page.
| Market | Example question | Window or type |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | Closes the 5-minute window higher? | Up/Down: 5 minutes to monthly |
| Ethereum | Closes the 5-minute window higher? | Up/Down: 5 minutes to monthly |
| EUR/USD | Closes the window up? | Up/Down window |
| USD/JPY | Closes the window up? | Up/Down window |
| Gold (XAUUSD) | Closes the window higher? | Up/Down window |
| Oil (USOIL) | Closes the window higher? | Up/Down window |
| Champions League | Who wins the fixture? | Match winner |
| Premier League | Who wins the fixture? | Match winner |
| La Liga | Who wins the fixture? | Match winner |
| Ligue 1 | Who wins the fixture? | Match winner |
| Serie A | Who wins the fixture? | Match winner |
| Bundesliga | Who wins the fixture? | Match winner |
- Bitcoin and Ethereum windows — 5-minute, 4-hour, daily, weekly and monthly.
- EUR/USD, USD/JPY, gold, oil and silver
- Champions League
- Premier League
- La Liga
- Ligue 1
- Serie A
- Bundesliga
How the payout works, with the numbers
Each event runs as a pool. When it resolves, everyone who backed a correct answer splits the money staked on incorrect answers, in proportion to their stake, after a 10% commission is taken from the losing side; the winners' own stakes come back untouched. There is no spread, no deposit fee and no monthly fee. If nobody backed a losing answer, because you were alone on the market or everyone chose the same answer, there is no losing pot and every stake is refunded in full. Voided markets are refunded in full.
- The displayed probability is an estimate of the final split, not a guaranteed multiple.
- There is no partial loss and nothing is borrowed: a position shares the losing pot, is refunded, or is lost in full.
| Step | Amount | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Staked on YES | $600 | Includes your $100. |
| Staked on NO | $400 | The losing pot. |
| Commission | $40 | 10% of the losing pot only. |
| Shared among YES holders | $360 | $400 minus $40. |
| Your share | $60 | $100 is one sixth of $600, so one sixth of $360. |
| Back to your wallet | $160 | Your $100 plus $60. |
| Had the event resolved NO | $0 | Your $100 is lost; NO holders share $540 after a $60 commission. |
| Had nobody staked on NO | $100 | No losing pot: full refund. |
Prediction market vs leveraged trading
A prediction-market account is a different instrument from the leveraged accounts compared elsewhere on this site. Read the table as two tools, not a ranking.
| Feature | PolySouq | Typical leveraged account |
|---|---|---|
| Leverage | None; every position is funded 1:1 from your balance. | Typically 1:30 for retail under strict regulators, higher offshore. |
| Maximum loss | The amount staked on that answer. | The margin, and more without negative balance protection; margin calls and stop-outs. |
| Cost | No spread; a 10% commission on the losing pot only. | Spread on every trade, often a commission, and overnight swap. |
| Position handling | Buy-only; held to settlement. | Open and close at any time while the market trades. |
| Funding | USDC on the Polygon network; $5 minimum. | Card, bank transfer and e-wallets; minimums vary. |
Opening an account and funding it
Sign-up works with an email address and password, or with Google or Apple, and email verification is required before trading. Deposits and withdrawals are USDC on the Polygon network only, $5 minimum each way; balances are shown in $. Cards and bank transfers are not offered.
- Open the sign-up page and create the account with email and password, or with Google or Apple.
- Verify the email address; trading is locked until then.
- Pick your interests; the feed is built from them.
- Go to Portfolio, choose Add funds, and copy your personal Polygon USDC deposit address.
- Send USDC from any wallet or exchange that supports the Polygon network; minimum $5.
- Choose an event and buy YES or NO on the answer you expect. The position stays open until the event resolves.
Minimum deposit $5 in USDC on the Polygon network. You can lose the full amount you stake.
Friends, the leaderboard and the Ideas feed
Every account has a personal invite link in Settings. Friends can be challenged on the same events, and a weekly accuracy leaderboard ranks users by how often they were right, not by how much they made. If you are alone on a market and nobody takes the other side, your money comes back at settlement. Analysis is shared on the Ideas feed, and every event has a comment thread.
Is PolySouq a betting site?
No, and the difference is structural. A bookmaker or sportsbook sets the odds, takes the other side of your position and profits when you lose. On PolySouq no operator takes the other side: the price is a probability set by other users' money, the platform's only revenue is a fixed 10% commission on the losing pot, and when there is no losing pot it earns nothing and refunds everyone. That is why the format is called event trading or probability trading rather than betting or gambling: you price an outcome against other people, publicly, and the outcome and its source are published afterwards.
- The platform never holds a position, so it has no interest in which answer wins.
- Prices are crowd-set probabilities, not odds with a built-in margin.
- The commission is fixed, disclosed and charged only when someone was wrong.
Risk note
A wrong answer loses 100% of the stake, and nothing about the format makes an answer more likely to be right. Positions cannot be closed early, so money placed on an event stays there until it resolves. This guide is not investment advice; it describes how the product works so that you can decide whether it suits you.
What does a probability price of 62 mean?
It means the market currently implies about a 62% chance that the answer is right, based on the money placed on each side so far. The price moves as more money arrives; it is an estimate of the final split, not a fixed multiple you are guaranteed.
What does it cost to trade on PolySouq?
There is no spread, no deposit fee and no monthly fee. The only charge is a 10% commission taken from the losing side's money when an event resolves. If nobody backed a losing answer, no commission is taken and every stake is refunded in full.
Can I close a position before the event resolves?
No. PolySouq is buy-only: once you buy YES or NO, the position is held until the event resolves and the pool is settled. That is the largest practical difference from a broker account, where positions can be closed at any time during market hours.
How do I fund a PolySouq account?
Send USDC on the Polygon network to the personal deposit address shown under Portfolio and then Add funds. The minimum deposit is $5 and the minimum withdrawal is $5, also in USDC on Polygon. Cards and bank transfers are not offered; the balance is shown in $.
How often do the Bitcoin and Ethereum markets run?
A new Up/Down window opens every 5 minutes for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, asking whether the price closes the window higher than it opened. Windows of 4 hours, one day, one week and one month run alongside. Gold, oil, silver, EUR/USD and USD/JPY use the same pattern.
How are markets resolved?
Resolution is automated by consensus of public sources, and cases the system cannot settle with confidence go to a human review queue. Every resolved market displays its outcome and the source used, so anyone can check the reasoning behind a settlement afterwards.
PolySouq is operated by the same group that publishes MyBestBrokers. Links to PolySouq carry tracking parameters and are not affiliate links. Product facts were checked on 2026-09-05. You can lose the full amount you stake; nothing on this page is investment advice or a promise of profit.